Good morning folks,
Jay Carney announced this morning that, "Due to deteriorating weather conditions in the Washington, DC area, the President will not attend today's campaign event in Orlando, Florida. The President will return to the White House to monitor the preparations for and early response to Hurricane Sandy."
As Chris Cillizza notes, "There will be nothing — repeat: nothing — on cable television over the next several days other than images of Sandy churning it’s way up the East Coast. (Yes, residents of everywhere not in the path of the storm, we know that it’s not a big story for you. But the storm is headed toward Washington and New York City, two of the country’s biggest media centers. It’s just a fact.) What that wall-to-wall coverage of the storm will bump off the air, of course, is the wall-to-wall coverage of the campaign that would have been there if not for Sandy. (All of the reporters who were being added for the final week of the election will now be diverted to cover the path of Sandy.) And it will force the two candidates and their campaigns to be far less aggressive in their scheduling and messaging than they normally would be in the race’s last days."
There are eight days to go in a grueling campaign that is currently neck and neck. It's been long, it's been difficult, and now the weather has now brought it to a temporary standstill. The fact that candidates are willing to cancel their events shows that you should too. Be safe, smart and vigilant and we'll see you on the other side.
Cape Cod Times – Editorial: “Romney for president”
Bemidji Pioneer – Editorial: “Romney offers promise for a way forward”
Joplin Globe – Editorial: “Mitt Romney for president”
Los Angeles Daily News – Editorial: “Elect Mitt Romney president”
Milwaukee Journal Sentinel: Press-Gazette endorses Romney
Minot Daily News – Editorial: “Elect Romney president”
Shreveport Times – Editorial: “Mitt Romney: Our choice for president”
St. Joseph News Press – Editorial: “Romney: Best choice for nation”
The Oklahoman – Editorial: “Mitt Romney is the best choice for America”
Williamsport Sun Gazette – Editorial: “Romney is clear choice in pivotal presidential election”
Worcester Telegram – Editorial: “Romney for president”
STATE OF PLAY
Memo From Romney Ohio State Director Scott Jennings: Romney Continues Momentum in Ohio
- The race for the White House continues to be too close to call in Ohio, according to a new Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News Organization Poll that shows President Barack Obama and Mitt Romney each with 49 percent support from likely voters. That's a slip for the president, who took 51 percent of likely voters in the newspaper group's September poll.
- PPP Poll: Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51- 47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago.
- KASICH PREDICTS ROMNEY VICTORY IN OHIO: 'I believe right now we are currently ahead, internals show us currently ahead,' he said on 'Meet the Press.' 'I honestly think that Romney is going to carry Ohio, and you know I haven't been saying this. I now believe it is going to happen.'
PPP: Obama Up 2 in New Hampshire
- Mitt Romney 49%, Barack Obama 48%
- Republicans customarily prevail on the tax issue, but Obama and Romney instead run essentially evenly in trust to handle it, 46-48 percent.
- Health care, usually a strong point for Democrats, but now one on which preferences again divide very closely, 49-46 percent Obama-Romney, likely reflecting doubts about elements of Obama’s health care reform law.
- Likely voters now divide 50-45 percent between Romney and Obama on who would better handle the economy,
- Romney has wide lead among whites (now 17 points, 57-40 percent), especially white men (61-36 percent); and a wider lead for Obama among nonwhites (75-23 percent).
- Independents divide by 55-40 percent in Romney’s favor, moderates by 57-39 percent in Obama’s. And while Obama holds a nearly 2-1 advantage among likely voters younger than 30, the contest has tightened among those in their 30s – potentially a new battleground group, among the many in the 2012 contest.
- Obama ahead of Romney by 1 percent, 49 to 48 percent. That represents a 3-point swing in Obama’s direction from a week ago but reflects a race that remains statistically tied.
- By any measure, the race is neck-and-neck: 43 percent say they will “definitely” vote Romney, compared to 42 percent who say the same of the president.
- On the generic congressional ballot, Republicans lead Democrats, 46 to 45 percent, after trailing slightly for much of the fall.
- Romney is again winning independents. Driven largely by the economy, the Republican now leads with this set of swing voters by 10 points, 50 to 40 percent.
- Romney is favored by 5 points, 51 to 46 percent, both on the questions of which candidate will better grow the economy and create more jobs. Significantly more strongly disapprove of his job performance, 44 percent, than strongly approve, 37 percent. Among those who describe pocketbook issues as their top concern, which is 7 in 10 voters, Romney leads 56 to 41 percent.
- Romney’s personal favorability has also continued to grow in the wake of the debates. He’s now viewed positively by 52 percent of respondents, up from 47 percent at the start of the month
1) Will Mitt Romney’s momentum be stopped?
2) Does Obama have a natural advantage because he’s president?
3) How will ad strategies be affected? Put simply: no one can watch TV if their power’s out.
4) How will the storm affect early voting?
5) Does this throw a wrench into Obama’s vaunted ground game?
New poll: Israeli Jews prefer Romney by large margin: 57 percent of Jewish Israelis felt that it would be preferable for Romney to win the election from the perspective of Israeli interests, while 22 percent said the same about Obama. Seventy percent of self-identified right-wingers, 54 percent of centrists, and 30 percent of left-wingers surveyed expressed support for Romney. Meanwhile, a plurality of Arab Israelis in the poll preferred Obama (45 percent) to Romney (15 percent)
VA- Purple, but Mainstream: “People want mainstream government,” said Sen. Mark Warner, D-Va., a cell phone executive turned popular governor who used his moderate pro-business record to persuade independents, even in rural regions, to vote for him. Virginians, he said, opt for a change when either party moves too far from the middle. Since Obama’s win four years ago, the state turned away from Democrats and largely back to the Republicans, who now control the Governor’s office and the legislature. Republicans hold a commanding majority of Virginia’s congressional delegation, though both U.S. Senate seats now are held by Democrats.
VA Students engaged, Turning Away From Obama via CNN: Obama has lost ground with these students, including former supporters who are now undecided or leaning towards Romney. "I agree with the president on social issues. I really do, and I think a lot of us are free-thinking in that way. But it's kind of gotten to the point where it's like triage. It's, like, okay, the economy's most important to me," said Caitlin Tyree. "In 2008 I supported the president. I even worked for grassroots organizations and I was all about him. In this election it's kind of just been like a bad break up between me and the president."
Battleground Wisconsin, via JMART: Obama won by 14 percentage points in 2008, flipping 32 of Wisconsin’s 72 counties from red to blue. As noted by Madison’s Capital Times in a lengthy piece about the state’s independent streak, there was more county turnover in the presidential race from 2004 to 2008 than any other state in the nation. That was before 2010, when Walker won by six points, Johnson by five and Republicans picked up two House seats and both chambers of the legislature. Then came the $80 million recall, with Democratic state senators fleeing the state to block Walker’s public worker legislation, tens of thousands of protestors descending on Wisconsin’s elegant granite and marble Capitol and politics pitting family members against one another. The cameras have long since departed, but a visit to the Capitol turns up a couple of hearty protestors. Security guards there say a few dozen still show up each weekday to sing protest songs. Republicans hope that the spirit of the recall continues, and Walker pointed to a pair of benefits the GOP won from the vote.
HOUSE RACE BUZZ
GOP WILL KEEP THE HOUSE: National Journal's Reid Wilson: The math: Republicans hold 240 seats in Congress, 22 more than the 218 required for a majority. Democrats hold another 190 seats, meaning they need to net 28 to wrest control of the Speaker's gavel. A state-by-state look at the truly competitive races suggests Democrats simply don't have the number of targets required to win back the majority.
Ryan Rallies Young Guns: House Budget Chairman Paul Ryan (Wis.), the Republican vice presidential nominee, was scheduled to hold a conference call with top GOP House candidates to give them an update on the state of the presidential race. The call includes candidates in the National Republican Congressional Committee’s Young Guns and Vanguard programs, the committee’s recruitment and candidate support initiatives for top candidates.
GOP Leads in…. RHODE ISLAND: A new GOP poll found Republican Brendan Doherty leading Rep. David Cicilline (D) by 6 points in the hard fought and bitterly nasty race for Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional district. The respected Republican firm OnMessage conducted a survey of likely voters for Doherty, which found him leading Cicilline 45 percent to 39 percent in a horse race matchup. Six percent of those polled said they would vote for independent candidate David Vogel, while 11 percent remained undecided. Forty-two percent had a favorable view of Doherty, a retired state police officer, while 33 percent had an unfavorable view. Thirty-nine percent had a favorable view of Cicilline, while 46 percent had an unfavorable view of him. President Barack Obama received 55 percent to Mitt Romney’s 34 percent in a ballot test in the poll, underscoring the district’s Democratic leanings.
IL-12: Southern Illinoisan Endorses Young Gun Jason Plummer: It is not an easy choice to make, but the most qualified candidate is Jason Plummer, an O’Fallon Republican. We endorse Jason Plummer for the U.S. House of Representatives. Plummer’ election will mark a clean break with tradition for Southern Illinois. Decades of congressional representation by the Democratic Party have not been without progress for Southern Illinois, especially for transportation infrastructure. But the region’s longstanding issues with unemployment, lost opportunities for coal and economic growth argue for a new direction. Coal is the biggest issue in the vote for the 12th Congressional District and Plummer is the most aggressive in promoting the potential for Southern Illinois coal. It is the issue that most hurts the candidacy of Bradford, because she opposes further use of coal as an energy resource. Her candidacy also is weakened by promoting the idea of cutting our military budget by half, a goal that would be lauded if this were a perfect world of reasonable men and women.. ….Finally, we respect Enyart for all that he has accomplished in life and most especially for his military service. But it was off-putting to hear Enyart make light of Plummer’s junior officer rank during the debates and to focus more of his attention on attacking his opponent than in full detailing his vision. Plummer did the best job of explaining what he would do if elected, working to eliminate government regulations that stifle private enterprise and promoting a 12-step program for economic development and job growth in Southern Illinois. Vote for Jason Plummer on Nov. 6.
MA-6: Tierney's Fatal Mistake: For this campaign, Tierney hired a D.C. consulting team of Global Strategy Group (polling) and Adelstein Liston (TV spots), deciding not to retain his longtime friend and PR consultant, Michael Goldman of Marblehead. In a major strategic blunder, Tierney and his D.C. consultants allowed the choice before voters to become whether Tierney knew about his brother-in-law’s illegal gambling enterprises and, further, if Tierney knew or should have known that his wife was receiving and spending ill-gotten funds from her racketeering brother. Voters were asked to vouch for Tierney’s integrity at a time of deep suspicion and hostility toward all members of Congress. A WBUR poll in September showed only 19 percent of voters in Tierney’s district would describe him as having integrity.
PA-12: Young Gun Keith Rothfus Sprints to Finish: Rothfus spokesman Tom Doheny said the campaigns are on a sprint to the finish. "The polls and fundraising, all the numbers, are showing Keith Rothfus surging with momentum," he said. "It's no surprise that there is a lot of increased interest in the race from both sides. People are excited about Keith's message and excited to take southwestern Pennsylvania back from the influence of President Obama and his policies and his ally and supporter Mark Critz." Doheny said that people who know Rothfus are able to separate the man from the negative campaign ads. "Everybody that knows Keith, everybody who met Keith, knows he is a regular guy. He's a lovable, normal guy," he said.
THIS & THAT
Seize the day.... stay dry.
Senior Advisor - YG Action Fund