Good morning folks,
Is America sliding back into recession? AEI's James Pethokoukis blog post caught some attention yesterday, when he wrote that "new data suggests the three-year economic expansion — as anemic as it has been — may be at an end, or is at least perilously close. The Institute for Supply Management’s factory index unexpectedly fell to 49.7 in June from 53.5 a month earlier. A reading of less than 50 signals contraction. Not one of 70 economists interviewed by Bloomberg thought it would be below 50.5." On it's own, not a cause for sirens. But Pethokoukis continued, "these numbers are just the latest in a long string of worrisome reports including rising initial unemployment claims, slowing job growth, falling consumer confidence, and declining durable goods orders. Oh, and the rest of the global economy is slowing, too."
The political consequences could be astounding, making Friday's employment numbers that much more relevant (if that is possible). Or, as Investor's Business Daily bluntly puts it, Unemployment is still a BFD. Prepare for SCOTUS to be knocked out of the post holiday news cycle for at least the week ahead.
Pre-4th State of Play
Polling Roundup: Americans still don't like ObamaCare
Pew: The top one word answers to describe SCOTUS decision? "Disappointed," & "Surprised."
What was Obama doing 4 Years ago today? NRO's Jim Geraghty is glad that the RNC remembers: “Four years ago today, then-candidate Obama said it was “irresponsible” and “unpatriotic” to add $4 trillion in debt. But in just one term, President Obama has added a record $5 trillion in new debt, more than any president in history. Watch the video.
The DNC's Debbie Wasserman Schultz agrees with Marco Rubio... thanks to ObamaCare, the IRS is coming for you.
NEW CNN/ORC POLL: Obama ahead nationally, Romney ahead in Battlegrounds..... President Obama remains marginally ahead of Mitt Romney in a new national CNN/ORC International poll on Monday, although Romney leads Obama in the 15 states identified by the network as battleground states. Obama leads Romney nationally, 49-46%, inside the poll's margin of error, and it is identical to the 49 percent to 46 percent lead Obama had in the previous poll, conducted in late May. However, in the 15 states CNN calls its battleground states — Arizona, Colorado, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Michigan, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, and Wisconsin — Romney leads Obama, 51 percent to 43 percent. Notably, though, the CNN/ORC International group includes three states thought to be comfortably in the Romney column this cycle: Arizona, Indiana, and Missouri.
Intrade odds: Obama 56% Romney 40.7% - Gary Johnson, .02 Percent. Joe Biden, .01 percent.
YG's Take: Really? Johnson beats Biden???
You should get to know Ann Romney via the USA Today's Susan Page.
MONEY HONEY
Obama to be Outspent? A myth, says Ed Rogers.
Hard to believe, Wall Street still giving lots of $$$ to Obama, via WSJ: President Barack Obama called Wall Street executives "fat cats,'' criticized their bonuses and tried to raise their taxes. The financial-services industry, in turn, has directed a stream of complaints toward the administration, fueling perceptions of a rift between the president and a key 2008 donor group. But, defying expectations, the securities and investment industry has remained an important part of the Obama fundraising effort. Mr. Obama and the Democratic National Committee raised more than $14 million from the securities and investment industry through the end of April, according to the nonpartisan Center for Responsive Politics. Mr. Obama's campaign alone raised $361,000 from the industry in May.
Was Obama's Fundraising Call on AF1 Illegal? Probably Not. Appropriate? No. From Ron Bonjean: "It may not be illegal for Obama to call for money from Air Force One, but it seemed entirely inappropriate based on the circumstances. We expect that our elected presidents understand the gravity of the office they hold and know that symbols matter. After a witnessing the disasters in Colorado, one would hope that the president somehow comprehended that to make this campaign call to donors after getting on board Air Force One was ill timed and simply wrong. One gets that sickening feeling that the Colorado visit might then be all part of political gamesmanship. Could it have been cover for the president politically so that he doesn't seem out of touch in an important battleground state? By making that desperate call for money, it really seems like maybe he really doesn't comprehend the enormity of the situation."
THE PEOPLE'S HOUSE RACES
NJ's House Race Hotline: YG Action Fund has spent $22,750 on a second mailing for ex-Hill aide Richard Hudson (R), bringing their total expenditures in the CD's runoff to $98,500. The mailing: "Extreme Makeover: $cott Keadle Edition. Hiring a decorator, refusing to pay & getting sued. We can't trust Scott Keadle in Congress."
More momentum for Hudson: Mike Huckabee endorses Richard Hudson in NC-08
Via Politico's AM Score - DCCC HAS RAISED $2.3 MILLION SINCE THURSDAY: The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee will announce today that they’ve raised $2.3 million from 65,000 donors since the Supreme Court upheld the health care overhaul. The average contribution was $35. Saturday was the single biggest grassroots’ fundraising day in DCCC history, per Chairman Steve Israel.
Freshman to Graduate, become Sophomores, via USA Today's Sue Davis: "The overwhelming majority of the 87 Republican lawmakers who swept into Congress in 2010 and took control of the U.S. House are likely to be re-elected this year, according to strategists and an analysis of redistricting changes." Democrats are "seriously" targeting about two dozen freshmen, and only three -- Illinois' Robert Dold and Joe Walsh, and New York's Ann Marie Buerkle -- are running in districts where Democrats have a clear majority of voters."
RUN-YAN... RUN-YAN: Observers described Adler as both energetic and hard-working in her efforts to unseat Runyan. But Democratic and Republican insiders alike said that ultimately the fate of the race may be out of her hands. “She’s been a pretty aggressive campaigner and fundraiser, [but] it’s still leaning Republican,” Scarinci said. “It’s his to lose. It’s absolutely his to lose.”
According to this Democratic PPP Poll, Ethically Challenged CT House Speaker Chris Donovan is way ahead in the CT-05 Primary.
YG's Take: Opportunity for Offense.
Speaking of ethically challenged, John Tierney woke up to this headline in the hometown Globe: Mass. congressman to address gambling accusations
Meanwhile, his GOP Young Gun challenger has this headline in the same paper: Tisei gains steam as Tierney sputters
More on Tierney: A Massachusetts congressman has announced plans to address allegations that he knew about the illegal gambling operation run by his brothers-in-law. Democratic U.S. Rep. John Tierney has scheduled a news conference in Salem at 2 p.m. Tuesday. Tierney's brother-in-law Daniel Eremian said last week after he was sentenced to three years in federal prison that Tierney "knew everything" about the illegal offshore gambling ring Eremian was convicted of running. Tierney's wife, Patrice, served a 30-day jail sentence last year after pleading guilty to aiding and abetting the filing of false tax returns for another brother, who is currently a fugitive. Patrice Tierney has testified that her husband knew nothing about her brothers' gambling activities.
Eeeep.
An Anthony Weiner Comeback? Politico's Arena argues it out. Have we reached rock bottom?
THIS & THAT
FACT CHECK THIS: Meta-Moment of the day - Glenn Kessler.
Really? The Jesus Lady faces eviction?
Happy 4th - The Atlantic's Beach Reads for Smart People
Bush Library Launches New Interactive Website...
Are you following the Aspen Ideas Festival Blog?
And for the 4th, here are 7 atypical renditions of the Star Spangled Banner, via Buzzfeed. You're welcome America.
Seize the day, celebrate tomorrow. We're back after the holiday.
Brad Dayspring
Senior Advisor- YG Action Fund
@YGActionFund - @BDayspring